How far will you walk for pizza?

At Pace Law School this week over 250 participants traded ideas and findings on the theme, Places for people: Strategies and funding for sustainable communities.

Looking at both demographics and infrastructure require ‘whole systems’ thinking. Thinking long term is the only way to get a handle on how weather the future storm events like “Sandy,” “Lee,” or “Irene.”  The closer together our homes and businesses districts become, the faster we can build microgrids with energy storage and renewable distributed generation capacity into our communities.

Professor Arthur Nelson from the University of Utah shared some his findings about housing market realities.

•    Subprime mortgages are history (Ok, no surprise there.)
•    20% down payments are new norm (How long will it take a first time home-buyer to save up $100,000 in a market like Westchester where many communities have median home prices of half million dollars or more?)
•    Freddie Mae & Fannie Mac are on chopping block (Ok, no surprise there, but what does that mean for the future of capital available for mortgages?)
•    Life expectancy is rising. A person turning 65 today can expect to live to be 90. Kids born today will predictably expect to live to 110. (Wow! That means baby boomers will need a place to live for a long retirement.)

These facts have direct implications for the next 20 years on what kinds of homes the market will demand.

Between 1990-2010, the market for increased housing stock was dominated by peak baby boomer homes (adults aged 35-65 raising children). That was paired with very little increase in demand for starter homes (adult aged 20 to 34) and an small market increase for downsizers (adults aged 65+, the early boomers retiring).

The 2010 census data for our region means we face a dramatic shift in housing needs.

•    Starting in 2010, we became net sellers of suburban single family house, as more people hit 62 to 65.
•    A majority of new home buyers are singles or couples with no children.
•    The majority of single home buyers are now women.

Between 2010-2030, market changes driven by our New York metro area population shifts mean 10% of market change will be for starter homes (the Next Gen trying to buy into the housing market), 16% for peak homes (Gen X families with children), and a whopping 74% of change will be demand for downsizers (baby boomer selling homes to move to smaller digs).

Professor Nelson predicts we will have smaller homes on smaller lots, more attached homes, and more renters versus owners occupying those homes.

The majority of seniors who downsize will shift from owner to renter. Those downsizers alone will push the need for housing that is closer to shopping, public transit, medical care, recreation, and mainly closer to other people, such as friends and family,

What does all this have to do with energy? Everything! 

Gasoline prices have increased 10% per year compounded. Home heating oil prices have climbed steadily as well. As Professor Nelson said, “For the first time in my forty years career of watching these trends, households are beginning to internalize their housing choices based on gas prices.”

•    56 % of Americans want homes that are smaller in trade off for being easy to walk to schools, shopping, restaurant, parks.
•    58% of Americans want a neighborhood that includes a mix of house and businesses easy to walk to versus houses only that requires a driver to everything.

Which brings us back to the opening question. How many services can you walk to from your dwelling? Pizza? A bus or train? A hair cut? A doctor’s office? A grocery store?

It turns out walkable neighborhoods have direct and permanent fiscal benefits for residents and communities. According the conference’s panelists,

•    Walkable neighborhoods are less expensive. As a nation, we spend more today on gas now than food, a dramatic turn from just 9 years ago when the opposite was true. (The more dollars we don’t spend of gas, the more we have for food or other goods and services.)
•    Walkable neighborhoods generate foot traffic and dollars for local businesses.  (Residents within a 10 to 15 min walk directly support “Main Street” businesses more than homes further away. In short the dollars saved on gasoline get recycled more locally.)
•    Walkable neighborhoods improve public health. Chronic medical conditions per 100 people go way down in denser neighborhoods as vehicle miles travelled go down. (Fewer couch potatoes means lower medical expenses per household. There is a direct correlation between the increase in vehicle miles travelled (VMT) by Americans and the swelling of the average American’s body mass index (BMI).)
•    Walkable neighborhoods reduce public infrastructure investments. Redeveloping existing building “grayfield” parcels that already have streets, sidewalks, and utility connections means avoiding the cost of installing those to reach new Greenfield sites on the outskirts of town.
•    Walkable neighborhoods improve the local property tax base. Dead strip malls are both a visual blight and a fiscal drain. Repurposing those same acres into a walkable neighborhood that includes places to live, shop and work raises property values, which direct benefit local government coffers.

Why not put your neighborhood into Walk Score? See my prior column about Walk Score here.