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Joe Carvin Releases Real National Unemployment Analysis

Joe Carvin releases first in a series of wake-up briefings, outlining the challenges placed before the nation by fiscally reckless politicians, including 24 year House incumbent Nita Lowey (D-WPF)

CARVIN RELEASES REAL NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS 
 
First in Series of "Wake Up Briefing"
 
 
Westchester-Rockland--Aug. 23...Rye Town Supervisor and congressional candidate Joe Carvin (R), who is running for Congress to address the staggering national debt crisis that is suffocating job and economic growth in Westchester and Rockland, and across the country, today released the first in a series of "Wake Up Briefings," outlining the challenges placed before the nation by fiscally reckless career politicians, including 24-year House incumbent Nita Lowey (D-WFP). 

The briefing report is available here. 

Mr. Carvin and Ms. Lowey are competing for the newly-drawn 17th Congressional seat, which encompasses much of Northern Westchester and all of Rockland County. 


"I come from a world where facts matter more than rhetoric, and the array of disconcerting facts before our nation today are damning for our House incumbents," Mr. Carvin said. "This meticulously footnoted unemployment brief reveals startling facts about the condition of today's job market. What is even more startling, though, is that Ms. Lowey and others are continuing to borrow money at an unsustainable rate which will further inhibit economic growth and job growth in America for years to come." 


Mr. Carvin has begun a series of events around the 17th Congressional District called "Cup o' Joes" where he outlines these "Wake Up Call" briefings for voters. 
Mr. Carvin's unemployment briefing (below) highlights, among other things, the real (U6) unemployment rate of 15%; the 16.4% percent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds; the African-American unemployment rate that is double that for white Americans (Mr. Carvin is married to an African-American), and the historic weakness of the current "recovery." 


"Westchester and Rockland residents are among the most educated people in America," Mr. Carvin continued. "Presented with the facts, I believe they will make the correct choice every time. Our Washington career politicians, however, have consistently obscured those facts from us in order to get re-elected term after term.  If we are going to get this country back on firm fiscal footing, that has to stop this year. We must not dig this hole and inch deeper." 

Wake Up Brief I -- Unemployment  The economic crisis in the United States has become a jobs crisis. Here is a comprehensive look at the scope of the nation's unemployment problems.

The official unemployment rate of 8.3% is unacceptably high.This represents approximately 13 million unemployed workers looking for a job.The average unemployment rate over the last 25 years is 6.0%#This is the longest streak of unemployment greater than 8% since the Great Depression- 42 months#The Obama administration and Democratic Congress that passed the Stimulus Bill in 2009 predicted that unemployment today would be less than 6% without the stimulus bill and 5.6% with the bill.  This prediction is off by over 4 million workers.The administration's own Office of Management and Budget last week released its mid-year update to its forecast.  It projects unemployment at 7.7% for 2013, 7.3% for 2014 and doesn't get back below the long-term average of 6% until 2017.  This represents almost a decade of below-average employment. The official unemployment rate understates the problem.Many economists prefer to look at the U6 rate, which includes people who have given up looking but would still like to work and people working part-time but want to work full time.  This rate is currently 15.0%.  Prior to this downturn, it had never exceeded 12% as far back as the data goes to 1994.

If the labor force stayed the same as before the downturn, the official unemployment rate would be 10.9%.  In other words, the economy is so bad that it is causing people to give up looking for work.  This causes the unemployment rate to look better, since it is measured against those looking for work.On a related note, employment as a percentage of the working age population is currently at 58.4%, down from an average of 61.3% over the last decade.

This number hasn't been this low since the '70s, before many women entered the workforce (except briefly during the Reagan recovery).Certain vulnerable sectors of the population are being even harder hit than average.Unemployment for ages 16-24 is currently 16.4%, nearly double the average.  Studies indicate that substandard employment for young people leaving school reduces their earnings for years before they can recover to where they should have been.This is further exaggerated by the high student loan balances so many of them carry.Black unemployment is 14.1%, nearly double that of whites.Many people in their 50s and early 60s are being forced to retire early, at a time when their savings have been decimated by the financial crisis.
 
The administration continues to insist that the problem is caused by the problems they inherited over three years ago, but the facts do not support this.In most recessions, jobs are back to their pre-recession level in 2 years (the recession that Reagan inherited took 4 years).

In the current case, it has been 5 years since the start of the recession and jobs are still 4% below their starting point. Under the current administration, we have been averaging 75K jobs/month for a total of 2.7 MM after 3 years.  Under Reagan, job growth averaged 273K/ month for a total of 9.8 MM.  (If you adjust for the size of the population, this equates to 360K/ month and a total of 13 MM.)

)Unemployment was 6.8% in November 2008 when Obama was elected.The administration has been touting recent job growth but it is not enough.We need 88,000 jobs a month just to keep up with new entrants to the job market and keep unemployment unchanged.  Following a loss of 12 MM jobs from the start of the recession to the end of 2009, we have only kept pace with this job market growth and have not narrowed the gap at all.  Even if we grow at Reagan's equivalent pace of 360K/month, it will take 3 years to close the gap.Last three months have averaged 75K growth in payrolls, not enough to keep up with growth.  Some claim that the private sector is doing fine, but its growth over the last three months has averaged 91K, barely enough to keep up with growth of labor force and not enough to reduce unemployment rate.The current administration is largely responsible for unemployment.The stimulus did not work; it was mainly a short-term boon for the states to keep their payrolls up for another year in the face of a declining economy.There is so much uncertainty about the future course of the economy, including the fiscal cliff, that it is keeping firms from hiring.Obamacare's increased regulations and the costs it imposes on businesses are also keeping firms from hiring.

Again, to see the charts that come with this report, and more analysis, click here.

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