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These Numbers Don't Work

... this administration and those in the media who support Democrats want you to think unemployment is going down.

The 8.2 percent unemployment numbers released Feb. 1, 2012 are based on the removal of another million-plus jobs. There are less jobs available now than in 2008. Until the jobs number increases, unemployment figures will not reflect the recession’s true depth. No President since Franklin Roosevelt has been re-elected with an unemployment rate of 8 percent. That’s why this administration and those in the media who support Democrats want you to think unemployment is going down. 

Unemployment is not predicted to go down for another three years, at least. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in a Feb. 1 report pegged true unemployment at more than 10 percent. It shoots up to 15-plus percent if we add the number of people who quit looking, and part- timers looking for full-time work. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s report confirms those numbers. However, that has more to do with New York's economic policies than Federal policies.

The CBO projects economic growth to be 2.2 percent this year and 1 percent for 2013. Its report cites existing tax policy next year and anti-energy production this year as reasons for the uptick.

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dleighg February 27, 2012 at 12:30 PM
I get a little tired of the statement being put out that "someone" is juggling the numbers because people who have stopped looking for work have been removed from the stats. That is *ALWAYS* the case, not just this month, and there is a specific number called U6 which tracks the more "complete" unemployment rate. U6 is not the number that is usually reported. One can find the stats of U6 here, and sure enough, even if you count in the people who have stopped looking, unemployment has been going down slowly but steadily over the last year of so, such that it is now about 1 and a half points below where it was near the end of 2010. http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
Donna February 27, 2012 at 02:25 PM
There might be more people working, but how many are working two part-time jobs and are underemployed? If someone is working for McDonalds, the government counts that as employed. You can't feed a family making minimum wage.
dleighg February 27, 2012 at 02:46 PM
The U6 number includes under-employed people. It is the most complete picture of true unemployment out there. It's been going down, as I wrote.
Anthony J. Bazzo February 27, 2012 at 06:20 PM
however it is not the report cited by the media, they use the U3. Yes, the nombers ahve gone down. They were 12% and 18%. They are still higher then 2008. You have ben nconditioned to accept 8% unemployment as the new norm. The media and administration have succeeded in you case. Bazzo 02/27/12
Anthony J. Bazzo February 27, 2012 at 06:21 PM
however it is not the report cited by the media, they use the U3. Yes, the numbers have gone down. They were 12% and 18%. They are still higher then 2008. You have been conditioned to accept 8% unemployment as the new norm. The media and administration have succeeded in you case. Bazzo 02/27/12
Donna February 27, 2012 at 06:32 PM
Whether it includes the underemployed or not, it's still bad. Being unemployed means that you can lose your home, be forced into bankruptcy, etc. From personal experience, our household income have not increased for 4 years when everything else has gone up -- food, gas, utilities to name a few. I know of some small businesses that are hiring, but they are able to pay their employees minimum wage since so many people are out of work -- it's called supply and demand.
Scott Walters February 27, 2012 at 06:32 PM
ALl you need to know are the two magic words....SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. That is the same as fixed, fudged, contorted and otherwise made up in order to make someone look good. Take it from me...I've been unemployed for over a year and a half and wonder if I am still counted.
Donna February 27, 2012 at 06:53 PM
So true Scott....those numbers include all the seasonal holiday hirings...most who will be let go if they haven't already. I can't believe anyone believes that the economy is improving...they can't convince most of us because we are either unemployed or hurting even with a job.
dleighg February 27, 2012 at 07:49 PM
actually those numbers DON'T include the seasonal hiring (that's actually what the term "seasonally adjusted" means. The economists (who btw are not employed by the White House) do their best to adjust for things like Christmas hiring, or summer hiring, by applying statistical models to reduce the effect of those yearly variations. They do the best they can to make an oranges to oranges comparison. You know, the folks that do this are actually professionals, who try to do things correctly. But the conspiracy theorists will never believe that.
Wonderboy February 27, 2012 at 08:54 PM
I agree uptown. I see a lot of people going on public assistance because they can't afford rent from a $8 per hr. job. It's too bad that so many jobs that used to be a backup hae been taken by immigrants here unlawfully.
Billy February 27, 2012 at 09:47 PM
@ wonderboy, that's what roommates are for, to split the expenses when you cannot afford them all by yourself.
jeff meyer February 27, 2012 at 10:34 PM
At the moment the unemployment rate stands at 8.2%. No matter how one attempts to spin it that is much better then the 10% rate of October 2009. It appears that in Mr. Bazzo's world President Obama can do nothing right. I strongly agree with the comments that indicate that there is a problem with the quality of jobs being created. It is a fact that many individuals in our county and nation would prefer the route of public assistance as opposed to working for $8.00 an hour with or without benefits. Currently there are approximately 50 million uninsured individuals in our nation. There are approximately 46 million individuals living below the poverty level. There are approximately 44 million recipients of food stamps. if these numbers continue to climb our nation is headed for turmoil. The disparity of wealth is staggering. There should be universal health care for all citizens. It works in Europe and Canada and it will work here. It should be a right just as public education and voting is. With the erosion of unionized jobs the benefits that come with them are diminishing the middle/working class. We can not be a society of have and have nots. Without a robust middle class capitalism will not continue to succeed. The Bush tax cuts will expire. With that should be a aggressive jobs program to rebuild are infrastructure. Bridged, roads and tunnels. It a start. Union jobs are quality jobs that help eradicate poverty. Jeff Meyer Tuckahoe, NY
Aidan February 27, 2012 at 11:55 PM
Jeff, I agree with much of what you say. I think it is a rather balanced observation of the current employment scene. But I differ on the healthcare issue a bit. I don't think this nation was ready for wholesale change in this regard. We should have moved less aggressively ... in smaller, well considered steps ... just as we've done with a number of issues over the last decade. Americans are a unique sort. They value individualism and the self-reliance ethos that is often discussed. Had the current administration been more judicious and less consumed with a very radical overhaul then several positive things might have happened. First, we would have made incremental adjustments to the healthcare issue. We can debate the type of steps, but the truth is, this broad-plan has caused great uncertainty in a lot of sectors ... and for a lot of people. Second, a great deal of political capital was spent on this issue ... when the unemployment issue was crying out for a solution. And those efforts didn't come about in earnest until after the healthcare debate faded somewhat. Last, the insurance is not settled. It faces a likely Supreme Court decision in the months ahead ... leaving both businesses and individuals in a suspended state. And paralysis of any sort isn't what we need to solve the job crunch.
Thomas N February 28, 2012 at 12:33 AM
Remember John Kerry droning on and on against Bush for a "jobless recovery" when unemployment was 5 per cent? Where is he now? The fact is that, even though the economy is improving, it is only improving slightly, and not enough to reach full employment for years to come. Obama's "recovery" pales in comparison to Kennedy's, Reagan's, clinton's, and W's recovery, who mostly relied on lower taxes and lower budget deficits and free trade to get America moving again. Look it up. Obama's recovery is pathetic and he is running annual $1,300,000,000,000 deficits with no end in sight.
Watchdog February 28, 2012 at 02:35 AM
Interesting that you should want all these generous benefits bestowed on us while you pay no taxes on any level on your "disability" pension. Where do you expect the money to come from?
jeff meyer February 28, 2012 at 03:38 AM
It is interesting that every benefit I receive is a direct result of a union job. After 21 years of service I fulfilled my obligation. You must get over your anonymous, bitter pot shots. Unions jobs are quality jobs that one can raise a family on. They are rewarded with health benefits and pensions. Something that all citizens, including "the watchdog" should have. Instead of worrying about my life so much you should focus on the millions of citizens living below poverty and try to fight for change. JM Tuckahoe, NY
Watchdog February 28, 2012 at 04:00 AM
I did not write anything about union jobs. I asked you where you expected to get the money for all the government largesse you advocate, when you pay no taxes on any level on your 6 figure "disability" pension? Not a pot shot, just a question. If everyone did what you did to get what you got we would have no programs for anyone.
jeff meyer February 28, 2012 at 04:12 AM
As I said in my original post which you must have overlooked, when the Bush tax cuts expire that will be a start. Monies from said taxes should be used for a national infrastructure jobs program. These jobs are union jobs with benefits. These are the type of jobs are nation needs to rebuild and secure the middle class. Do you "watchdog' have a pension? Do you have health insurance? If not then you should focus your energy on making a positive change for society and the American worker instead of wasting your breath obsessing over my union benefits, once again. JM Tuckahoe, NY
Pat February 28, 2012 at 04:47 AM
Again, how do you expect to pay for this vision of Nirvana? The numbers you cited about people living below the poverty line as well as on food stamps are both record numbers ACHIEVED UNDER oBAMA. These number WILL only continue to grow with his policies. The freakin' debt is at 16 trillion and rising and yet you are still in lock step support of him looking to spend more. When will you finally realize we are currently "in turmoil" because of obama's policies? When will you realize their goal is to get more and more people reliant on government handouts, not for the individuals benefit but for governments own benefit. When/if the Bush tax rates expire it will not do a thing toward bringing down the debt. Compared to the current debt that additional tax revenue is pocket change and will be gone before you can blink. The debt will continue to rise and we will be to far gone down the road to bankruptcy.
Mike S February 28, 2012 at 06:33 AM
Not only is unemployment still above 8% but the debt has increased to over $15 trillion from about $10 trillion in just 3 years. With all this added debt, one would think that we would have more jobs. Infrastructure spending is necessary but it is a temporary bump in employment and not a solution. Union jobs are great for members of the union but they are bad for everyone else. If every employer had to pay union wages to their employees, the unemployment rate would be dramatically higher and the cost of living would go up as well. Unfortunately when you look at the big picture, every new tax and increase in payroll will only affect the cost of goods and services for everyone. The US government and state and local governments as well cannot keep spending more than they take in without severe consequences down the road. Unfortunately, we are getting closer to the end of that road.
JJ March 02, 2012 at 03:22 AM
We're getting ready to "dismiss" 40,000 Army Soldiers & 20,000 Marines from active service over the next few years. HOW WILL THE FOLKS IN CHARGE "SPIN" THAT UNEMPLOYMENT FACT? Spin & spin = Manure ; we're in DEEP trouble here folks. Please tell me WHERE this employment rate has GONE up? We are the unwilling led by the UNKNOWING.

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