Vote No/Hope Yes

An article in the January 18 New York Times  identified a group of Republican Congressmen as the Vote No/Hope Yes group.    This characterization came from the House Whip, Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma referring to the vote of the prior week on legislation to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff”. While the legislation did pass since it was put to the entire House for a vote, and had substantial Democratic support, it epitomized a situation among Republicans that will continue into the coming year’s legislative process.

According to Cole, the House Republicans could be roughly divided into thirds regarding the “fiscal cliff” vote.  One third favored it and wanted it to pass; one third wanted it to fail; one third voted ‘no’ but secretly hoped it would pass to avoid a fiscal calamity.   This Vote No/Hope Yes group is caught between the politics of their home constituencies and a pragmatic understanding of the need to compromise.  There was evidence of this mentality in the vote to provide financial relief from Hurricane Sandy as well. 

Looking ahead to the legislative challenges in the next few months, this Vote No/Hope Yes group is going to continue to be whipsawed between compromise and unwavering adherence to the economic positions that got them elected.  They will continue to be conflicted by their understanding that long-term resolution of fiscal issues such as the debt ceiling, the federal budget,  and spending cuts requires reaching compromises, and their equally strong understanding that they won’t be back for the next Congress if they agree to compromises. At bottom, it is a philosophical question of whether Congressional Representatives are part of a federal body which acts in the best interests of the whole country or whether they are part of a body in which each acts only to satisfy their local constituency. 

Can these Congressional Representatives sit on the fence for the next two years, continuing to vote “No” while waiting hopefully for others to take the hard votes?  They probably can and they probably  will.